Drinking Water Engineering and Science www.drink-water-eng-sci.net 1996-9457 1996-9465 3 1 2010 10.5194/dwes-3-71-2010 http://www.drink-water-eng-sci.net/3/71/2010/ http://www.drink-water-eng-sci.net/3/71/2010/dwes-3-71-2010.html http://www.drink-water-eng-sci.net/3/71/2010/dwes-3-71-2010.pdf 71 77 2010-05-18 I-WARP: Individual Water mAin Renewal Planner Y. Kleiner yehuda.kleiner@nrc.ca B. Rajani National Research Council Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada I-WARP is based upon a nonhomogeneous Poisson approach to model breakage rates in individual water mains. The structural deterioration of water mains and their subsequent failure are affected by many factors, both static (e.g., pipe material, pipe size, age (vintage), soil type) and dynamic (e.g., climate, cathodic protection, pressure zone changes). I-WARP allows for the consideration of both static and dynamic factors in the statistical analysis of historical breakage patterns. This paper describes the mathematical approach and demonstrates its application with the help of a case study. The research project within which I-WARP was developed, was jointly funded by the National Research Council of Canada (NRC), and the Water Research foundation (formerly known as the American Water Works Association Research Foundation – AwwaRF) and supported by water utilities from USA and Canada. Andreou, S. A., Marks, D. H., and Clark, R. M.: A new methodology for modeling break failure patterns in deteriorating water distribution systems: Theory, Adv. Water Resour., 10, 2–10, 1987. Ansell, J. I. and Phillips, M.J.: Practical methods for reliability data analysis, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 1994. Boxall, J. B., O'Hagen, A., Pooladsaz, S., Saul, A., and Unwin, D.: Estimation of burst rate in water distribution mains, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Water Management I60, Issue WM2, 73–82, June 2007. Constantine, A. G. and Darroch, J. N.: Pipeline reliability: stochastic models in engineering technology and management, edited by: Osaki, S. and Murthy, D. N. P., World Scientific Publishing Co., 1993. Dridi, L., Mailhot, A., Parizeau, M., and Villeneuve, J. P.: A strategy for optimal replacement of water pipes integrating structural and hydraulic indicators based on a statistical water pipe break model, Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, Univ. of Exeter, UK, 65–70, September 2005. Economou, T., Kapelan, Z., and Bailey, T.: A Zero-Inflated Bayesian Model for the Prediction of Water Pipe Bursts, Proc. 10th International Water Distribution System Analysis Conference, CD-ROM edition, Kruger National Park, South Africa, 2008. Giustolisi, O., Laucelli, D., and Savic D. A.: A decision support framework fro short time planning of rehabilitation, Proceedings of Computer and Control in Water Industry (CCWI), 1, 39-44, 2005. Giustolisi, O. and Berardi, L.: Pipe level burst prediction using EPR and MCS-EPR, Proceedings of the Combined International Conference of Computing and Control for the Water Industry (CCWI2007) and Sustainable Urban water Management (SUWM2007) on Water Management Challenges in Global Change, Leicester, UK, September, 39–46, 2007. Jarrett, R., Hussain, O., and Van der Touw, J.: Reliability assessment of water pipelines using limited data, OzWater, Perth, Australia, 2003. Kleiner, Y. and Rajani, B.: Comprehensive review of structural deterioration of water mains: statistical models, Urban Water, 3, 131–150, 2001. Kleiner, Y. and Rajani, B.: Quantifying effectiveness of cathodic protection in water mains: theory, J. Infrastruct. Syst., ASCE, 10(2), 43–51, 2004. Lambert, D.: Zero-Inflated Poisson regression, with an application to defects in manufacturing, Technometrics, 34, 1, 1–14, 1992.\ Mailhot, A., Paulin, A., and Villeneuve, J.-P.: Optimal replacement of water pipes, Water Resour. Res., 39(5), 1136–1150, 2003. Nagelkerke, N.: A Note on a General Definition of the Coefficient of Determination, Biometrika, 78(3), 691–692, 1991. Park, S. and Loganathan, G. V.: Optimal pipe replacement analysis with a new pipe break prediction model, Journal of the Korean Society of Water and Wastewater, 16/6, 710–716, 2002. Røstum, J.: Statistical modelling of pipe failures in water networks, PhD thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway, 2000. Watson, T. G., Christian, C. D., Mason, A. J., Smith, M. H., and Meyer, R.: Bayesian-based pipe failure model, J. Hydroinform., IWA publishing, 06.4, 259–264, 2004.