Drinking Water Engineering and Science www.drink-water-eng-sci.net 1996-9457 1996-9465 3 1 2010 10.5194/dwes-3-29-2010 http://www.drink-water-eng-sci.net/3/29/2010/ http://www.drink-water-eng-sci.net/3/29/2010/dwes-3-29-2010.html http://www.drink-water-eng-sci.net/3/29/2010/dwes-3-29-2010.pdf 29 42 2010-03-31 Rapid evaluation of water supply project feasibility in Kolkata, India K. Dutta Roy B. Thakur b2981975@yahoo.co.in T. S. Konar S. N. Chakrabarty Kolkata Metropolitan Water and Sanitation Authority, Kolkata, India Meghnad Saha Institute of Technology, Kolkata, India Civil Engineering Dept., Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India Mega cities in developing countries are mostly dependent on external funding for improving the civic infrastructures like water supply. International and sometimes national agencies stipulate financial justifications for infrastructure funding. Expansion of drinking water network with external funding therefore requires explicit economic estimates. A methodology suitable for local condition has been developed in this study. Relevant field data were collected for estimating the cost of supply. The artificial neural network technique has been used for cost estimate. The willingness to pay survey has been used for estimating the benefits. Cost and benefit have been compared with consideration of time value of money. The risk and uncertainty have been investigated by Monte Carlo's simulation and sensitivity analysis. The results in this case indicated that consumers were willing to pay for supply of drinking water. It has been also found that supply up to 20 km from the treatment plant is economical after which new plants should be considered. The study would help to plan for economically optimal improvement of water supply. It could be also used for estimating the water tariff structure for the city. Adeli, H.: Neural Networks in Civil Engineering: 1989–2000, Comput.-Aided Civ. Inf., 16, 126–142, 2001. Adeli, H. and Wu, M.: Regularization Neural Network for Construction Cost estimation, J. Constr. Eng.-ASCE, 124, 1, 18–24, 1998. Agudelo, J.: The Economic Valuation of Water Principles and Methods, Value of Water Research Rep. Series No. 5, http://www.unesco-ihe.org/content/download/415/5091/file/Value%20of%20Water%20Research%20Report%20Series%205%20The%20economic.pdf (last access: 13 January 2010), 2001. American Water Works Association (AAWA): 1984 Water Utility Operating Data, Denver, CO, 1986. (ADB) Asian Development Bank: Handbook for the Economic Analysis of Water Supply Projects, http://www.adb.org/documents/handbooks/water_supply_projects/default.asp (last access: 30 March 2010), 1999. (ADB) Asian Development Bank: Project No: 29466, India: Kolkata Environmental Improvement Project (Supplementary Loan), 2006. (ADB) Asian Development Bank: Project No: 29466, India: Kolkata Environmental Improvement Project Loan Agreement, 2007, http://www.adb.org/documents/legal-agreements/ind/29466/29466-ind-lbj.pdf (last access: 30 March 2010), 2007. Baffoe-Bonnie, B., Harle, T., Glenne, E., et al.: Framework For Operational Cost Benefit Analysis in Water Supply, TECHNEAU, contract number 018320, 2006. Baumol, W.: On the Social Rate of Discount, The American Economic Review, 58, 4, 788–802, 1968. Birta, L. and Arbez, G.: Modelling and Simulation Exploring Dynamic System Behaviour, Springer-Verlag London, 2007. Boscolo, M., Vincent, J., and Panayotou, T.: Discounting Costs And Benefits in Carbon Sequestration Projects, Environment Discussion Paper No. 41, Harvard Institute for International Development, 1998. Boussabaine, H.: The use of artificial neural networks in construction, Construction Management and Economics, 14, 427–436, 1996. Boussabaine, H. and Kaka, A.: A neural networks approach for cost flow forecasting, Construction Management and Economics, 16, 471–479, 1998. (Canada) President of the Treasury Board: Canadian Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide Regulatory Proposals, http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/students/envs_5120/CanadaCBA.pdf (last access: 30 March 2010), 2007. Cavalieri, S., Maccarrone, P., and Pinto, R.: Parametric vs. neural network models for the estimation of production costs: A case study in the automotive industry, Int. J. Prod. Econ., 91, 2, 165–177, 2004. (CPEEHO) The Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organisation: Manual on Water Supply and Treatment, N Delhi, India, 2008. Chatterjee, N., Bhattacharya, N., and Halder, A.: Report on Socio-Economic profile of Household in Calcutta Metropolitan area: 1996–97, Kolkata Metropolitan Development Authority, 1997. Creedy, J.: Discounting and the Social Time Preference Rate, University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper No 989, 2007. (DTS) Decision Tools Suite: Palisade Corporation, Ithaka, New York, USA, http://www.palisade.com/ (last access: 13 January 2010), 2009. Fellin, W., Lessmann, H., Oberguggenberger, M., et al.: Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering, Springer, Berlin, 2005. Florio, M., Finzi, U., Genco, M., et al.: Guide to cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, Evaluation Unit, DG Regional Policy, European Commission, 2006. Guha, S.: Valuation of Clean Water Supply by Willingness to Pay Method in a Developing Nation: A Case Study in Calcutta, India, Journal of Young Investigators, 17, 4, http://www.jyi.org/research/re.php?id=1295, 2007. Green, C.: Handbook of Water Economics Principles and Practice, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, UK, 30, 177–201, 2003. Hanke, S. and Walker, R.: Beneit Cost Analysis Reconsidered: An Evaluation of the Mid State Project, 10, 5, 898–908, 1974. HM Treasury: The Green Book Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government, London, 2003. INSA-Lyon: Rehabilitation of water supply network in urban fields (CARE-WARP), 2005. Jain, A., Varshney, A., and Joshi, U.: Short-TermWater Demand Forecast Modelling at IIT Kanpur Using Artificial Neural Networks, Water Resour. Manag., 15, 299–321, 2001. Jalan, J. and Somanathan E.: Awareness and the Demand for Environmental Quality II: Experimental Evidence on the Importance of Being Informed, JEL Codes 112, O10, Q53, Q56, 2004. Jaspers: Guidelines for Cost Benefit Analysis of Water And Wastewater Projects to be Supported By The Cohesion Fund And The European Regional Development Fund in 2007–2013, http://discutii.mfinante.ro/static/10/Mfp/evaluare/Water_WasteWater_GuideFINAL.pdf (last access: 30 March 2010), 2008. Kaliba, A., Norman, D., and Chang, Y.: Willingness to Pay to Improve Domestic Water Supply in Rural Areas of Central Tanzania: Implications for Policy, http://www.uaex.edu/akaliba/Documents/p03-~3.pdf (last access: 30 March 2010), 2003. Katz, T. and Sara, J.: UNDP – World Bank Water and Sanitation Program Making Rural Water Supply Sustainable: Recommendations from a Global Study, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1998/11/17/000009265_3981005112156/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf (last access: 30 March 2010), 1997. (KMWSA) Kolkata MetropolitanWater and Sanitation Authority: Retrospect, http://www.kmwsa.gov.in/html/retros.html, last access: 13 January 2010. Kopp, R. J., Krupnick, A. J., and Toman, M.: Cost-Benefit Analysis and Regulatory Reform: An Assessment of the Science and the Art, Discussion Paper 97-19, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA, 1997. Leo'n, C. Martín, S., Elena, J. M., et al: EXPLORE–Hybrid Expert System for Water Networks Management, J. Water Res. Pl.-ASCE, 126, 2, 65–74, 2000. Llorente, M. and Zerah, M.: The urban water sector: Formal versus Informal Suppliers in India, Urban India, Vol. XXII, No. 1, National Institute of Urban Affairs, January–June 2003. McIntosh, A.: Asian Water Supplies Reaching the Urban Poor, Chapter 11, Asian Development Bank, http://www.adb.org/documents/books/asian_water_supplies/ (last access: 30 March 2010), 2003. Marglin, S.: The Social Rate of Discount and The Optimal Rate of Investment, Q. J. Econ., 77, 1, 95–111, 1963. Marini, G. and Scaramozzino, P.: Social Time Preference, J. Popul. Econ., http://www.soas.ac.uk/economics/research/workingpapers/file28891.pdf (last access: 30 March 2010), 1999. Majumdar, C. and Gupta, G.: Willingness to pay and municipal water pricing in transition: a case study, Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences, 6, 4, 1–12, 2009. Mishan, E. and Quah, E.: Cost-benefit analysis, Allen & Unwin, UK, 1976. Majumdar, C.: 5 Water provision and taxation; a case study of kolkata, PhD Thesis, Jadavpur university, Kolkata, 2008. Moglia, M., Perez, P., and Pope, S.: Small town water governance in developing countries: the uncertainty curse, 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia, http://mssanz.org.au/modsim09 (last access: 30 March 2010), 2009. Murty, M. N., Dhavala, K. K., Ghosh, M., et al.: Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Delhi Metro, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi University Enclave, N. Delhi, http://iegindia.org/workpap/wp273.pdf (last access: 30 March 2010), October 2006. NBC, National Building Code of India: Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 1983. New York Times, 3~Oct~2006: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/03/nyregion/03water.html (last access: 30 March 2010), 15, 2006. NeuroDimensions Inc.: Neural network software, http://www.nd.com/ (last access: 13 January 2010), 2009. Nordhaus, W. and Boyer, J.: Requiem for Kyoto: An Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, 1999. Oca de, M., Bateman, I. J., Tinch, R., et al.: Assessing the Willingness to Pay for Maintained 20 and Improved Water Supplies in Mexico City, CSERGE Working Paper ECM 03-11, http://www.uea.ac.uk/env/cserge/pub/wp/ecm/ecm 2003 11.pdf (last access: 30 March 2010), 2003. (OECD) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development: Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Environment: Recent Developments, ISBN 92-64-01004-1, 2006. Page, C. and Page, M.: Durability of concrete and cement composites, Woodhead Publishing and Maney Publishing, CRC Press, USA, 2007. (RBI) Reserve Bank of India Bulletin: Government of India, New Delhi, http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_ViewBulletin.aspx (last access: 30 March 2010), 2009. Richard, A. and Weyrick, R.: Linear Programming Use for Evaluating Water Resources and Cost and Benefit Allocation, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 9, 258–272, 2007. Rostam, S.: The European Approach to design life, The Design Life of Structure, Edited Sommerville, Blackie, UK, 2006. Roy, J., Chattopadhyay, S., Mukherjee, S., et al.: An Economic Analysis of Demand for Water Quality: Case of Kolkata, Economic and Political Weekly, Jan., 186–192, 2003. Ruet, J.: Water supply & sanitation as "urban commons" in Indian metropolis: how redefining the State/Municipalities relationships should combine global and local de facto `commoners', Centre de Sciences Humaines, N Delhi, India, 2002. Sen, A. K.: Isolation, Assurance and the Social Rate of Discount, Q. J. Econ., 81, 112–124, 1967. Smith, A. and Mason, A.: Cost Estimation Predictive Modeling: Regression versus Neural Network, Accepted to The Engineering Economist November, http://www.eng.auburn.edu/~aesmith/publications/journal/tony.pdf (last access: 30 March 2010), 1996. Cost Estimation Predictive Modeling: Regression versus Neural Network Accepted to The Engineering Economist, November 1996. Singh, R., Franceys, R., Kumar, V., et al.: Water Supply Projects: A Case Study of Varanasi and Chandauli Districts, Journal of Institutions of Engineers, 84, 35–38, 2003. Soheil, M.: Water and Sanitation Tariffs for the Poor Guidance notes, Water, Engineering and Development Centre, Loughborough University, 2004. Stillman, J.: Design life and the new code, The design Life of Structures, edited by: Sommerville, G., Blackie, UK, 2004. UNCED (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development): Agenda 21. Chapter 18, Protection on the quality and supply of freshwater resources, Vol. II, New York, United Nations, 1992. (UTT) Urban Think Tank: Willingness to Charge for Water and Sanitation Services, 14th Meet, Kolkata, 14–15 Nov 2002. Vaidya, C.: Study on Willingness to Pay for water and sanitation services-case study of Baroda, Report submitted to HSMI (HUCO), New Delhi, 1995. WEDC Conference 20th: Affordable Water Supply And Sanitation, Willingness to pay/use for water supply and sanitation, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 1994. Weitzman, M.: Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate, J. Environ. Econ. Manag., 36, 201–208, 1998. Whittington, D., Lauria, D., Prabhu, V., et al.: An economic reappraisal of the Melamchi water supply project – Kathmandu, Nepal, Portuguese Economic Journal, 3, 157–178, 2004. Wu, Z., Walski, T. M., Mankoski, R., et al.: Optimal Capacity of Water Distribution Systems, Proc. of 1st Annual Environmental and Water Resources Systems Analysis Symposium, 19–22 May, Roanoke, VA, USA, 2002. World Bank (Weston International, USA, et al.: Final Report: An Assessment of Social Aspect and Willingness to Pay, Project Preparation Studies for Calcutta Water Supply, Sewerage and Drainage Projects, World Bank Project No P.O 50648, Kolkata, 2001. Wu, Z., Walski, T., Naumic, G., et al.: Optimizing Water System Improvement For A Growing Community, International Conference of Computing and Control in the Water Industry, 5–7 Sep 2005, Exeter, UK, 2005. Young, H. P., Okada, N., and Hashimoto, T.: Cost Allocation in Water Resources Development – A Case Study of Sweden, RR-80-32, International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1980. Zerah, M.: Water Supply and Sanitation in Vijayawada: Analysis of households' situation towards modes and cost of access, consumption and level of satisfaction, Centre for Economic Studies in India, Report Number 2/2002, 2002. Zhang, S.: Architecting Water Supply System – A Perspective from Value of Flexibility, Second International Symposium on Engineering Systems, MIT, Cambridge, USA, 15–17 June 2009. Zurada, M.: An Introduction to Artificial Neural Systems, PWS Publishing Company, Mumbai, India, 1992.